Superbowl predictions based on various weeks in the season.
One of the advantages of our desk top program (NFLAnalysis) is that we are able to run various scenarios based on different factors. For the super bowl we elected to look at our predictions based on different weeks of the season. Below you will see predicted scores based on the entire season, the last ten and five weeks of the season, etc.
To examine the loss of Gronkowski, we chose the first five and ten weeks of the season when the passing was all going to Welker. In all cases we show the Patriots covering, but it is clear that the Patriots score more with the Gronk as the primary receiver.
Next we wanted to look statistically at the claims that the Giants had the mojo. To do this we looked at post season only, the last five weeks and the last ten weeks. The patriots once again gain in score prediction when we only look at the end of the season.
Bottom line the Ginats have been more consistent than most think. They just got there the hard way. The Patriots are the most volatile with a lower predicted score based on early performance and a higher predicted score when the focus is on last season performance.